Sunday, May 30, 2010

Why I am voting yes for California’s proposition 14

I voting yes for proposition 14 because I want the two highest vote getters to compete against each other for the legislative office that they are seeking.

The current situation allows the highest vote getter in a particular political party to compete in a run off election. And I don’t see the difference in the agenda of either of the Democratic or Republican parties. But I often see a difference in the agenda between the two candidates who received the most votes in a contested election.

I want the candidates who received the most votes to compete for the contested office, because I think their agenda will be reflect the community’s viewpoint on the same issues. .

Vote yes on Proposition 14.

Saturday, July 4, 2009

dollar in transition

Below is my response to my brother's thinking of the global commerce market; the dollar is in transition, going from a national/global currency to a national currency only. We have entered into uncharted waters but waters where one can find investment opportunities.

Darrell and Darcy
Peter Schiff's thesis that the dollar will collapse is somewhat likely to happen. More likely is a slow decline in the value of the dollar. If Congress pumps a big and sudden increase in spending into the economy, a big and sudden inflation will result, leading to a collapse in the dollar, unless the Federal Reserve raises interest rates. A more likely scenario is that the world experiences a gradual increase in productivity and wealth, leading to a gradual decline in the dollar. As the world economy becomes more like the American economy.
Yours,
Daniel

Hi Daniel and Hi Darcy:

My take on the dollar is somewhat different than yours or Peters; long term, I think the dollar will function effectively as a national currency only; the dollar’s status as an international currency is being challenged and will be successfully be replaced by a new currency system that will be regulated by an independent policy making body.

The nations that are advocating for a new currency system are the capitalist/socialist countries of Russia, India, and China; to a far lesser extent, Vietnam. Brazil and other South American countries also want a change in the currency system, but have not yet stated a position on a replacement currency system.

So far the Middle East oil producing countries are sticking to their “basket of currencies” solution; however they will adopt a universal currency, if persuaded that a one universal currency concept will function effectively in the world of international commerce. They are simply bidding their time, as they have the assets on their side.

My conclusion is that the dollar’s use as an international currency is now in a transition stage: it will continue to function as an international currency until a viable replacement solution is developed. So far China, India and Russia are the main countries that are actively working on developing a replacement solution.

The reason why they want a replacement to the current system is obvious: we can obtain what we need: whether its oil, food, vacation trips; simply by issuing more currency.

Since the cold war, the dollar has been the currency of choice for international transactions; if one wanted to buy something from another country they had to use that country’s currency or the dollar.
Most preferred the dollar. But the cold war is now over and we are in the digital age, we are in an age were our former enemies are now our competitors. And because our dollar is used as a universal currency, they think we have an unfair competitive advantage in the world of global commerce.

Most countries think it is unfair that they have to earn dollars in order to get what they need from other countries, and all we have to do is print dollars to get what we need. And, to a large extent, they are right.
The current currency system is unfair and it does give us a huge competitive advantage.

And, not only do China, Russia, India, and other countries think we are wrongheaded for continuing this practice, they think that by advocating for changes in the currency system, they are being a force for good. They think what ever international currency system is developed that replaces the existing system, it will be much fairer that the current system.

So how are our political leaders responding to this call for change? Are they embracing the call for change as something that is needed and long over due? No! They are being reactionary and saying the current system works just fine. Sure, our competitors say, it works for us but not for most people in this digital age.

Daniel and Darcy, change will occur, the question is how and in what form. My take is that President Obama will embrace the call for an international currency and do what he can to mitigate the effects that it will have on the working people. But I think President Obama will encounter strong local opposition and be accused of this and that.

So how are we, as retired individuals, going to survive in this new economic environment? I think the answer lies in the timing of the response of our policy makers: when will they embrace the change? When will they give up the fight for the status quo? The sooner we embrace the change, the more influence our policy makers will have on the outcome.

More importantly, what will our new economic environment look like? The commercial world functions on profits, and it is through profits that one has the means to buy the goods, services and/or assets they need to continue their activities.

There is no question that the world’s societies will prosper because of the adoption of a new world currency. The question is how will our society prosper in this new economic environment? And, more importantly, how can we make profits in this new environment?

We have enter into uncharted waters of global commerce and successes in the market place will be the result of artistic effort rather that the result of careful planning. Strategic planning must occur but it will be inspiration that drives one to success.

In the years ahead, currency wars occurring today will simply be a footnote in the global commerce community.

Blessings, Darrell

Saturday, May 23, 2009

currency wars

As I stated before on the burning platform, in the globalized economy currencies have entered into a transition stage where national currencies used as global currencies will again only be used as a national currency. China, Russia and other nations want to create a one world currency that is used for trade between nations and is regulated by policy monks that are independent of national influences.

People on this board have long advocated that currencies be regulated by some economic metric that can be used to guarantee the value of the currency; so much gold per unit of currency is one example.

The United States has, time and time again, shown that it is foolhardy to use a national currency as a global currency. Our excess dollars don’t circulate in our economy but is kept by central banks. Because we have not experienced the economic dislocations that other nations have experienced when they print too much currency, our political leadership believe that our economic policies are economically beneficial to the economy and they continue to do more of the same.

And because there have been no economic dislocations for the last 30 some years, and despite the persuasive arguments of the counter culture economic types, they thought they were doing the right things. In reality, the dollar and national currencies that function as global currency did so successfully because of the cold war.

The cold war is done and gone, and now we are at the stage where the commercial world no longer wants to use the dollar or any other national currency as a global currency; the problem is who will direct the transition, as the global economy goes from one system of medium of currency exchange to another?

We are in a new economic cycle and this is the point of the cycle we are in: the adoption of a new global currency. Our economic policy wonks are no longer in control of economic events; they can no longer create economic models to their liking.

However, unlike Peter, I don’t think we are destined to be reactive to world events, we have the resources to create our own economy, the spiritual wherewithal to create and direct the course of peaceful events, and the determination to make our community, the USA, the place to be when it comes to harmonious living.

So accept the changes that are coming and pray for a godly outcome.